QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Specialty Chemicals
Ashland ASH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 15% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $86.12+16%
- Market Value
- $71.16price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.81
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($47.84, Nov 4) about 15%; today about 0%. The last 3 years delivered −23%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −23%/yr (free cash flow)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $47.84Nov 4 | $74.19 |
| Implied growth | +15% | 0% |
| P/E | n/a | 65.6× |
| P/FCF | 30.6× | 13.7× |
| EV/Sales | 1.8× | 2.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ASH’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ASH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.81
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
How it ranks
Where ASH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate16% · price below our base caseTop 36%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 22%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 44%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−1.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 9%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 34%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital3.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 16%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $86.12 · MV $71.16 · FCF value $147.29
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -8.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.43 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 29, 2026. Net debt $934M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $86.12, 16% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 247% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.3% (price / FCF 13.7×): $250M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($76M paid over 12 months).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.8×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −42.5% in FY2025 from 7.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 65.6× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 50 points in two fiscal years, to -44% in FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 65.6 · FCF yield 7.3% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 65.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 13.7×
- FCF yield
- 7.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.85×
- Price / book
- 1.82×
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.05
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $52M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.5%
- Operating margin
- 7.4%
- Net margin
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- 13.6%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $440M
- Total debt
- $1.4B
- Net cash
- −$934M
- Debt / equity
- 0.73×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $250M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +247%
- Dividend yield
- 2.23%$76M paid
- Payout ratio
- 146%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $16M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Ashland’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $74.19
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$47.84−35.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 25$71.16−4.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$74.19you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$76.45+3.0%
- Fair value est.base case$86.12+16.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +2.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.30
- Year-ago EPS$1.08
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ASH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ashland in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.