QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Motor Vehicles
Harley-Davidson HOG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 16% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.77
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +5.6%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +5.6%), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($17.19, Mar 18) about −17%. The last 3 years delivered 2%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 2%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $33.07Nov 2 | $17.19Mar 18 | $33.07 |
| Implied growth | n/a | −17% | n/a |
| P/E | 17.7× | 6.2× | 16.8× |
| P/FCF | — | 5.0× | — |
| EV/Sales | 0.9× | 0.4× | 0.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for HOG: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HOG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.77
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where HOG stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−3.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 9%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield13% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 3%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−5.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 5%of 1,814
- Operating margin5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 26%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital4.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 20%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 11.2% in a year: $361M of buybacks over 12 months.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $3.0B at FY2025, 58% less than at FY2023.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.4% ($83M paid over 12 months, 41% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$133M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.6% in FY2025 from 13.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 11 points in two fiscal years, to 11% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 23.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 16.8 · FCF yield -3.9% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.80×
- Price / book
- 1.10×
- Market cap
- $3.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $3.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −5.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.80
- EPS growth, last FY
- −19.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $203M
- Net income growth
- −17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.4%
- Operating margin
- 5.0%
- Net margin
- 4.8%
- FCF margin
- −3.1%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.9B
- Total debt
- $2.2B
- Net cash
- −$347M
- Debt / equity
- 0.72×
- Interest coverage
- 8.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$133M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.44%$83M paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $361M10.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −11.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Harley-Davidson’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales −19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield-3.9%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−19%
- Net debt / EBITDA23.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $33.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.19−48.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$33.07at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$33.07you are here
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 81 · 5 days +14.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HOG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Harley-Davidson in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.