QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Autohome ATHM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 20% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 9.4%, top 2% of the 1731 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $26.89+34%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.84
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.8%; bull = 8.5% and 14.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ATHM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ATHM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.84
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
How it ranks
Where ATHM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate34% · price below our base caseTop 27%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.9% · free cash flow vs market capTop 41%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield16% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 2%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 35%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $26.89
Assumes 12.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.98 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 4 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 15, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $26.89, 34% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 11.4× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 9.4% ($222M paid over 12 months).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.9% (price / FCF 20.5×): $116M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.7×, below the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 88.9% in FY2020 from 2950.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 36.4% in FY2020 from 646.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $222M paid vs $208M of net income.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 37% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 11.4 · FCF yield 4.9% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.4×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 20.5×
- FCF yield
- 4.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 0.69×
- Market cap
- $2.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.93
- EPS growth, last FY
- −12.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $208M
- Net income growth
- −14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 1433.9%
- Operating margin
- n/an/m
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 236.9%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.9B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $116M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −37%
- Dividend yield
- 9.36%$222M paid
- Payout ratio
- 107%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $158M6.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $33M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Autohome’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales −32%
- Gross margin74%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−32%
- Net debt / EBITDA−35.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.11
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.38−18.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.11you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.20+25.3%
- Fair value est.base case$26.89+33.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −1.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.31
- Year-ago EPS$0.39
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ATHM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Autohome in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.