QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Pony AI PONY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 75% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 78% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 20%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −75%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.76
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for PONY: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PONY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.76
- Volatility
- 66% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.52
How it ranks
Where PONY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield−10% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 3%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+20% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 26%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 20% to $90M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.2×, below the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$209M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −199.2% in FY2023 from −108.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $134M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 15.7% in FY2025 from 23.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -10.4% · ROE -10% · Sales +20%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −10.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 22.22×
- Price / book
- 1.21×
- Market cap
- $2.0Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $90M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$134M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.7%
- Operating margin
- n/an/m
- Net margin
- −148.9%
- FCF margin
- n/an/m: revenue near zero
- Return on equity
- −10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$209M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Pony AI’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.3B · Sales +69%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield-10.4%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin−182%
- Return on invested capital−94%
- Return on equity−7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+69%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $4.62
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.62at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$4.62you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.68+304.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 26 · 5 days −8.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, before the open
- Year-ago EPS($0.16)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
PONY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Pony AI in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Morgan StanleyAnalyst rating changeAnalyst
Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of Pony AI at Overweight, sets price target at $10TradingView ·
Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.