QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Astronics ATRO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 16% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
- Down 36% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 14%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $40.23−33%
- Market Value
- $71.21price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.03
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 36% below its 52-week high (Aug 14), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 36% below its 52-week high.
The price is 36% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$942M → $942M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.70 → $1.70 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$61M → $61M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin13.4% → 13.4% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −36%, sector median −9% since Aug 14changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −36%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 71.7× at the high → 46.0× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 14, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($93.45, Aug 14) the price assumed about 31%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 22%. The last 3 years delivered 11%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 11%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $93.45Aug 14 | $59.95 |
| Implied growth | +31% | +22% |
| P/E | 55.0× | 35.3× |
| P/FCF | 71.7× | 46.0× |
| EV/Sales | 4.9× | 3.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ATRO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ATRO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.03
- Volatility
- 55% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
How it ranks
Where ATRO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate33% · price above our base caseLowest 25%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 29%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+14% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 35%of 1,814
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 46%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital24% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 16%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $40.23 · MV $71.21 · FCF value $11.53
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.2% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.30 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 12, 2026. Net debt $301M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 25.3% in FY2023 from 14.7% in FY2021 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 68% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 34% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −1.0% in FY2023 from −6.4% in FY2021 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 15.8% below its Market Value of $71.21, the average price paid since the Aug 11 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $40.23, 33% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 6.6% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.6×, above the 0.6× median for the 198 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.03 vs the S&P 500 and 55% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 10 (consensus EPS $0.75): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 35.3 · FCF yield 2.2% · ROE 34%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.3×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 46.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.7×
- Price / sales
- 2.96×
- Price / book
- 14.07×
- Market cap
- $2.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $942M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.1%/yrfrom FY2020
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $79M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.5%
- Operating margin
- 13.4%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
- Return on equity
- 34%
- Return on invested capital
- 24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $9M
- Total debt
- $310M
- Net cash
- −$301M
- Debt / equity
- 1.57×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $61M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +68%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +6.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $8M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Astronics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +27%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+27%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $59.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$37.49−37.5%
- Fair value est.base case$40.23−32.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$59.95you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$71.21+18.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$93.45+55.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days +0.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.75
- Year-ago EPS$0.41
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ATRO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Astronics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.