QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Ducommun DCO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 7% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $175.67price −7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.37
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 21% below its 52-week high (Aug 14), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 21% below its 52-week high.
The price is 21% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$865M → $865M (0.0%)about the same
- Operating margin−1.7% → −1.7% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −21%, sector median −9% since Aug 14about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −21%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 14, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($86.41, Nov 21) about 14%. The last 3 years delivered 5%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 5%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $206.98Aug 14 | $86.41Nov 21 | $163.65 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +14% | n/a |
| P/FCF | — | 29.0× | — |
| EV/Sales | 4.0× | 1.8× | 3.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for DCO: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DCO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.37
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.44
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.40
How it ranks
Where DCO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield−1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 14%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 48%of 1,814
- Operating margin−1.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 11%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−1.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 7%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $175.67
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 26.9% in FY2025 from 21.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $865M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.4×, below the 0.6× median for the 198 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.8% below its Market Value of $175.67, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$24M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityLost $21M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −4.3% in FY2025 from 3.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −2% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -1.0% · ROE -3% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −1.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 142.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.89×
- Price / book
- 3.62×
- Market cap
- $2.5Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $865M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.48
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$21M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 27.4%
- Operating margin
- −1.7%
- Net margin
- −2.5%
- FCF margin
- −2.8%
- Return on equity
- −3%
- Return on invested capital
- −1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $40M
- Total debt
- $271M
- Net cash
- −$232M
- Debt / equity
- 0.39×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$24M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Ducommun’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield-1.0%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity−3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $163.65
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$86.41−47.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$163.65you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$175.67+7.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$206.98+26.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +0.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.06
- Year-ago EPS$0.99
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
DCO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ducommun in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.