QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Firefly Aerospace FLY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 72% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 25% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 74% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 179%
- Net cash = 23% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $21.63price −25%
- Off 52-wk high
- −72%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.60
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 72% below its 52-week high (May 26), but the business held up: revenue +55.2%, revenue growth rate +108.5 pts, operating margin +43.1 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +55.2%, revenue growth rate +108.5 pts, operating margin +43.1 pts), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 72% below its 52-week high.
The price is 72% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$185M → $287M (+55.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+70.7% → +179.2% a year (+108.5 pts)held up
- Operating margin−161.1% → −118.0% (+43.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+3.8% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+3.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −72%, sector median −5% since May 26changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −72%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +55% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for FLY: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FLY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 8.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.60
- Volatility
- 109% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.44
How it ranks
Where FLY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−12% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+179% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 1%of 1,814
- Operating margin−118% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 1%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−45% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 1%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $21.63
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 179% to $287M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −163.1% in FY2025 from −238.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 70% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $628M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ValuationTrades 24.7% below its Market Value of $21.63, the average price paid since the Aug 11 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$326M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 19.2% in FY2025 from 48.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -41.7× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $370M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -12.1% · Sales +179%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −12.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 9.41×
- Price / book
- 2.21×
- Market cap
- $2.7Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $287M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +179.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +70.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$370M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 22.9%
- Operating margin
- −118.0%
- Net margin
- −129.1%
- FCF margin
- −113.8%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- −45%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $635M
- Total debt
- $7M
- Net cash
- $628M
- Debt / equity
- 0.01×
- Interest coverage
- -41.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$326M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $46M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Firefly Aerospace’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.3B · Sales +657%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield-12.1%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin−81%
- Return on invested capital−28%
- Return on equity−58%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+657%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.29
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.29you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.29at the price
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$21.63+32.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$58.81+261.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −10.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.60)
- Year-ago EPS($0.33)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
FLY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Firefly Aerospace in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.