QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Steel
Commercial Metals Company CMC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $67.87+6%
- Market Value
- $64.34price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.35
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $63.98
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$56.52−11.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$63.98you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 15$64.34+0.6%
- Fair value est.base case$67.87+6.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$83.21+30.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CMC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CMC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.35
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.40
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 10.9× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.7% (price / FCF 14.9×): $479M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 53% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 20% to $9.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 221% to $3.2B from FY2024 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 19%, below the 35% median for the 114 Industrials companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.7×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 2.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 4.5% median for the 146 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Commercial Metals Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Steel
All fundamentals
P/E 10.9 · FCF yield 6.7% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.9×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 14.9×
- FCF yield
- 6.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.76×
- Price / book
- 1.52×
- Market cap
- $7.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.86
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $656M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.6%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.1%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $779M
- Total debt
- $3.2B
- Net cash
- −$2.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.68×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $479M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +53%
- Dividend yield
- 1.18%$84M paid
- Payout ratio
- 13%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $103M1.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $44M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From Commercial Metals Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $67.87 · MV $64.34 · FCF value $17.77
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.2% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.28 a share (fiscal year to Aug 31, 2026), from the 10-K filed Oct 16, 2026. Net debt $2.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days +1.9%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CMC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.