QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Beverages
Brown Forman BF-B
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $31.90+11%
- Market Value
- $27.43price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.12
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.71
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.80−20.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 21$27.43−4.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$28.71you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$30.88+7.6%
- Fair value est.base case$31.90+11.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BF-B’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BF-B moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.12
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $31.90, 11% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.0% (price / FCF 14.3×): $925M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 58% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.8% in a year.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 25% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 25.5% in FY2026 from 33.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 11 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2026.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 17% to $1.53 in FY2026.
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Brown Forman in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Beverages
All fundamentals
P/E 18.3 · FCF yield 7.0% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.3×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 14.3×
- FCF yield
- 7.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.1×
- Price / sales
- 3.37×
- Price / book
- 3.32×
- Market cap
- $13.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.55
- EPS growth, last FY
- −16.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $721M
- Net income growth
- −15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.7%
- Operating margin
- 25.4%
- Net margin
- 18.4%
- FCF margin
- 23.6%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $301M
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$2.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.62×
- Interest coverage
- 9.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $925M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +58%
- Dividend yield
- 3.23%$426M paid
- Payout ratio
- 59%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Brown Forman’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $31.90 · MV $27.43 · FCF value $37.52
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.4% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.01 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 2, 2026. Net debt $2.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days −2.4%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin61%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
BF-B is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.