QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Shake Shack SHAK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 31% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 9% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 33% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 17%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $66.73price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.19
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 31% below its 52-week high (Apr 20), but the business held up: revenue +7.4%, revenue growth rate +1.9 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.7% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.4%, revenue growth rate +1.9 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.7% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share −15.0%, free cash flow $57M → −$12M, turned negative). The price is 31% below its 52-week high.
The price is 31% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −15.0%, free cash flow $57M → −$12M, turned negative.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.4B → $1.6B (+7.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+15.4% → +17.3% a year (+1.9 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.09 → $0.93 (−15.0%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$57M → −$12M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin4.3% → 3.6% (−0.8 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+2.2% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.7% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −31%, sector median +4% since Apr 20changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −31%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −4% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 95.8× at the high → 78.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 1, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($104.69, Apr 20) the price assumed about 33%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($52.34, Jun 5) about 44%. The last 3 years delivered 17%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 17%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $104.69Apr 20 | $52.34Jun 5 | $72.46 |
| Implied growth | +33% | +44% | n/a |
| P/E | 95.8× | 51.2× | 78.0× |
| P/FCF | 77.5× | 132.3× | — |
| EV/Sales | 3.0× | 1.4× | 2.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for SHAK: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SHAK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.19
- Volatility
- 56% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where SHAK stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−0.4% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 16%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+17% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 30%of 1,814
- Operating margin3.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital7.6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 37%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $66.73
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 354% to $1.09 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 17% to $1.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 4.3% in FY2025 from 0.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $60M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 1, 2026).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$12M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ValuationP/E of 78.0× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 8.6% above its Market Value of $66.73, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 78.0 · FCF yield -0.4% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 78.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −0.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.0×
- Price / sales
- 2.00×
- Price / book
- 5.70×
- Market cap
- $3.1Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $3.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.95
- EPS growth, last FY
- +354.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $40M
- Net income growth
- +100%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 3.6%
- Net margin
- 2.6%
- FCF margin
- −0.8%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $308M
- Total debt
- $248M
- Net cash
- $60M
- Debt / equity
- 0.46×
- Interest coverage
- 25.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$12M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 1, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 1, 2026. From Shake Shack’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield-0.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin−3%
- Gross margin40%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $72.46
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$52.34−27.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$66.73−7.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$72.46you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$104.69+44.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +11.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.33
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
SHAK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Shake Shack in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.