QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
The Baldwin Insurance Group BWIN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 2% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $14.54−54%
- Market Value
- $31.90at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.07
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 2% below its 52-week high (Sep 15), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 2% below its 52-week high.
The price is 2% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($32.49, Sep 15) the price assumed about 30%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 30%. The last 3 years delivered 15%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 15%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $32.49Sep 15 | $31.92 |
| Implied growth | +30% | +30% |
| P/FCF | 69.0× | 67.7× |
| EV/Sales | 1.6× | 1.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BWIN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 30% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BWIN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.07
- Volatility
- 60% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
How it ranks
Where BWIN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate54% · price above our base caseLowest 11%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+19% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 27%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $14.54 · MV $31.90 · FCF value $7.09
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.47 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026. Net cash $168M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 4.9% in FY2025 from −3.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $168M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 19% to $1.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 15% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $14.54, 54% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $81M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 36.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −7% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 20.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.5% · ROE -11% · Sales +19%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 67.7×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 40.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.70×
- Price / book
- 3.35×
- Market cap
- $3.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.04
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$81M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −6.9%
- Net margin
- −4.7%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
- Return on equity
- −11%
- Return on invested capital
- −13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $184M
- Total debt
- $16M
- Net cash
- $168M
- Debt / equity
- 0.02×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $44M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +36.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $75M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From The Baldwin Insurance Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity−11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA20.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $31.92
- Fair value est.base case$14.54−54.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.50−48.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 27$31.90−0.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$31.92you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$32.49+1.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −0.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3
- Consensus EPS$0.26
- Year-ago EPS$0.16
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BWIN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Baldwin Insurance Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.