QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Hagerty HGTY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $25.10+58%
- Market Value
- $14.39price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.02
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Oct 26), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) +2.4% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +0.4%.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) +2.4% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +0.4%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −7.5 pts, revenue −2.6%). The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −7.5 pts, revenue −2.6%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HGTY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HGTY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.02
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
How it ranks
Where HGTY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate58% · price below our base caseTop 19%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $25.10 · MV $14.39 · FCF value $19.18
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026. Net cash $214M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $25.10, 58% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 5.3% in FY2024 from −8.6% in FY2022 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 81% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months, up 37 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to −4% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationP/E of 90.8× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales fell 4% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 10.4% above its Market Value of $14.39, the average price paid since the Sep 11 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 90.8 · FCF yield 5.1% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 90.8×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- 19.5×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.96×
- Price / book
- 21.23×
- Market cap
- $5.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $60M
- Net income growth
- −53%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $461M
- Total debt
- $246M
- Net cash
- $214M
- Debt / equity
- 0.96×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $280M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +81%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Hagerty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA−3.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.67−39.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 11$14.39−9.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$15.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$15.95+0.4%
- Fair value est.base case$25.10+58.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days −0.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.01
- Year-ago EPS$0.13
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HGTY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Hagerty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.