QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Cheesecake Factory CAKE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $72.79−36%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.46
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 4% below its 52-week high (Aug 12), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +2.2 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.9% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +9.7%.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +2.2 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.9% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +9.7%), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 4% below its 52-week high.
The price is 4% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($117.29, Aug 12) the price assumed about 13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($43.14, Nov 20) about 0%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 46%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 46%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $117.29Aug 12 | $43.14Nov 20 | $112.96 |
| Implied growth | +13% | 0% | +12% |
| P/E | 31.8× | 13.0× | 28.0× |
| P/FCF | 27.6× | 13.2× | 26.5× |
| EV/Sales | 1.6× | 0.7× | 1.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.3%; bull = 8.5% and 6.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CAKE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CAKE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.46
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.08
How it ranks
Where CAKE stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate36% · price above our base caseLowest 23%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 48%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 38%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 42%of 1,814
- Operating margin6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 30%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital24% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 17%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $72.79 · FCF value $110.94
Assumes 4.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.3% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.26 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 29, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 2, 2026. Net debt $314M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 42% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 24%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 37% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $72.79, 36% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.9% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationP/E of 28.0× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 17.2×, above the 12.3× median for the 230 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 28.0 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 42%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 26.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.2×
- Price / sales
- 1.45×
- Price / book
- 10.13×
- Market cap
- $5.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.22
- EPS growth, last FY
- −4.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $208M
- Net income growth
- +29%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 6.0%
- Net margin
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.5%
- Return on equity
- 42%
- Return on invested capital
- 24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $249M
- Total debt
- $564M
- Net cash
- −$314M
- Debt / equity
- 0.98×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $219M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +37%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%$57M paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $43M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 29, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 29, 2026. From Cheesecake Factory’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $112.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$43.14−61.8%
- Fair value est.base case$72.79−35.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$112.96you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$117.29+3.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +2.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CAKE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cheesecake Factory in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.