QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Wingstop WING
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 6% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $132.54−19%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.87
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 43% below its 52-week high (Jan 12), but the business held up: revenue +6.9%, free cash flow +86.4%, operating margin +2.2 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +6.9%, free cash flow +86.4%, operating margin +2.2 pts), others slipped (revenue growth rate −8.7 pts, earnings per share −30.7%). The price is 43% below its 52-week high.
The price is 43% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −8.7 pts, earnings per share −30.7%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$683M → $730M (+6.9%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+15.6% → +6.9% a year (−8.7 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$6.23 → $4.31 (−30.7%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$63M → $117M (+86.4%)held up
- Operating margin25.5% → 27.7% (+2.2 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−3.1% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−3.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −43%, sector median +4% since Jan 12changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −43%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 127.4× at the high → 38.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 27, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 26, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($284.66, Jan 12) the price assumed about 43%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($97.84, Sep 24) about 8%; today about 19%. The last 3 years delivered 26%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 26%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $284.66Jan 12 | $97.84Sep 24 | $163.04 |
| Implied growth | +43% | +8% | +19% |
| P/E | 45.7× | 22.9× | 37.8× |
| P/FCF | 127.4× | 20.8× | 38.0× |
| EV/Sales | 13.1× | 5.2× | 7.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WING’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WING moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 5.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.87
- Volatility
- 64% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
How it ranks
Where WING stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate19% · price above our base caseLowest 36%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 34%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 38%of 1,814
- Operating margin28% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 14%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital44% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 6%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $132.54 · FCF value $83.37
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 24.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.30 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $1.1B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 68% to $6.21 in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 25% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 44%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.1% in a year: $165M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $132.54, 19% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 69% to $1.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 7% over the last 12 months, from 25% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationP/E of 37.8× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 5.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 37.8 · FCF yield 2.6% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 37.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 38.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 23.8×
- Price / sales
- 6.06×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $4.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $730M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +24.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +67.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $117M
- Net income growth
- −33%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.7%
- Net margin
- 16.0%
- FCF margin
- 16.0%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 44%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $105M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $117M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +86%
- Dividend yield
- 0.77%$34M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $165M3.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Wingstop’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin27%
- Return on invested capital40%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $163.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$97.84−40.0%
- Fair value est.base case$132.54−18.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$163.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$284.66+74.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 79 · 5 days +32.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
WING is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Wingstop in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.