QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto dealers
Casey's General Stores CASY
In a deep dip: 26% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $312.99−54%
- Market Value
- $631.18price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.12
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $680.19
- Fair value est.base case$312.99−54.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$513.19−24.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 8$631.18−7.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$680.19you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$916.28+34.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.2%; bull = 8.5% and 7.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CASY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CASY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.12
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.08
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 31% to $19.16 in FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 14% to $18.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 26% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $312.99, 54% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 51% to $2.3B from FY2024 to FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 32.7× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.6%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.8% above its Market Value of $631.18, the average price paid since the Sep 8 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Casey's General Stores in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto dealers
All fundamentals
P/E 32.7 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 32.7×3-yr-end avg 32.8× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 38.9×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.35×
- Price / book
- 6.17×
- Market cap
- $25.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $27.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $18.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $20.76
- EPS growth, last FY
- +30.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $773M
- Net income growth
- +33%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- 3.5%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $524M
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.59×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $649M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0.34%$86M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $214M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $65M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Casey's General Stores’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $312.99 · MV $631.18 · FCF value $442.12
Assumes 5.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.2% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $17.47 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 8, 2026. Net debt $1.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days −2.7%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CASY fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CASY or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.