QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto dealers
Carvana CVNA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 29% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $44.71−35%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.23
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $68.29
- Fair value est.base case$44.71−34.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$56.26−17.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$68.29you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$95.69+40.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.3%; bull = 8.5% and 16.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CVNA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CVNA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.23
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.38
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 50% to $27.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 104% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 9.3% in FY2025 from −0.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 51% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 29%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $44.71, 35% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 144 points in two fiscal years, to 41% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 29.6× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 6.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.23 vs the S&P 500 and 63% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Carvana in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto dealers
All fundamentals
P/E 29.6 · FCF yield 2.2% · ROE 51%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 45.4×
- FCF yield
- 2.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.84×
- Price / book
- 11.61×
- Market cap
- $50.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $52.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $27.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +50.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +431.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Net income growth
- +171%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.0%
- Operating margin
- 8.7%
- Net margin
- 6.2%
- FCF margin
- 4.1%
- Return on equity
- 51%
- Return on invested capital
- 29%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.0B
- Total debt
- $5.2B
- Net cash
- −$2.1B
- Debt / equity
- 1.19×
- Interest coverage
- 6.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +104%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $97M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Carvana’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $44.71 · FCF value $25.13
Assumes 14.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.50 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $2.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +18.1%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +42%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity48%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+42%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CVNA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.