QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Other Metals and Minerals
Cameco CCJ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $54.60−29%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.39
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $76.91
- Fair value est.base case$54.60−29.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$76.91you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$76.91at the price
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$134.09+74.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CCJ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CCJ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.39
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.60
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.59
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 17.8% in FY2025 from 10.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 55% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 27.9% in FY2025 from 21.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 11% to $2.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $54.60, 29% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 79.3× vs a 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 11% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.39 vs the S&P 500 and 51% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cameco in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Basic Materials
All fundamentals
P/E 79.3 · FCF yield 2.3% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 79.3×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 43.5×
- FCF yield
- 2.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 13.42×
- Price / book
- 6.77×
- Market cap
- $33.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +23.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- +246.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $423M
- Net income growth
- +243%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 27.9%
- Operating margin
- 17.8%
- Net margin
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- 30.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $799M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 11.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $771M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +55%
- Dividend yield
- 0.22%$75M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Cameco’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $54.60 · FCF value $29.58
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 23.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.77 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 40-F filed Mar 19, 2026. Net cash $85M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 35 · 5 days −2.2%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CCJ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.