QualityDipJC
Jim CramerOct 19 · TV
bullish“I like it. I think that's a good idea. Nice hedge against inflation too.”
Stocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
VALE
VALE VALE
$11.39+1.88% dayFri Oct 30 close
In a deep dip: 36% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $27.45+141%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.09
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.Drag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $11.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.18−1.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$11.39you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.82+56.5%
- Fair value est.base case$27.45+141.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$27.45+141% vs price
Price $11.39
Bear$21.30
Base$27.45
Bull$36.42
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VALE’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VALE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Market-like
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.09
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $27.45, 141% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 12.2% ($5.9B paid over 12 months).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 36% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
VoicesJim Cramer (Oct 19): ““I like it. I think that's a good idea. Nice hedge against inflation too.”” CNBC Mad Money (lightning round)
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 15.4% in FY2025 from 34.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 35.0% in FY2025 from 42.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $5.9B paid vs $2.4B of net income.
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on VALE in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap
FCXFreeport-McMoRan$62.47−5.5%+50%−67%30.6×$95BRIORio Tinto Plc$81.89−1.6%+13%n/a10.5×$105BSCCOSouthern Copper$177.53−7.4%+32%−11%23.4×$162BBHPBHP Group$79.16−3.3%+38%−27%20.5×$208BCLFCleveland-Cliffs$14.25−0.1%+16%n/an/a$8BMPMP Materials$39.57−5.0%−39%n/an/a$7BAll fundamentals
P/E 20.7 · Sales +1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.7×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.27×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $48.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $38.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Net income growth
- −62%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 35.0%
- Operating margin
- 15.4%
- Net margin
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 4.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 12.18%$5.9B paid
- Payout ratio
- 252%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025. From VALE ’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $27.45 · FCF value $21.25
Market ValueNo thesis-changing filing in the window we track
—
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$27.45141% upside
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.3% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.73 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Mar 27, 2026. Capex: PP&E and intangible additions (company tag).
FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($3.6B)
$21.25price −46%
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 26 · 5 days −8.1%
$11.39now
52-wk low $11.18high $17.82
Off 52-wk high−36.1%
5 days−8.1%
vs 50-day avg−17.9%
vs 200-day avg−25.4%
RSI (14)26 oversold
Market cap$48B
The business
FCF $3.6B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Investor buzz
1 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when VALE fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on VALE or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.