QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Aggregates & minerals
Martin Marietta Materials MLM
Not in a dip by our rules: 24% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $213.21−61%
- Market Value
- $495.85price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −24%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $540.41
- Fair value est.base case$213.21−60.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$471.10−12.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 16$495.85−8.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$540.41you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$708.11+31.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MLM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MLM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 13.2× is 47% below its own average of 25.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 13.2× vs a 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 23% to $6.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 24% over the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $213.21, 61% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 42% to $18.77 in FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 0.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 10% median for the 23 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 9.0% above its Market Value of $495.85, the average price paid since the Sep 16 filing.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Martin Marietta Materials in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Basic Materials
All fundamentals
P/E 13.2 · FCF yield 2.5% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.2×3-yr-end avg 25.2× · Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 40.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6×
- Price / sales
- 4.86×
- Price / book
- 2.82×
- Market cap
- $32.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $38.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +23.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $40.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- −42.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Net income growth
- +123%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.2%
- Operating margin
- 20.6%
- Net margin
- 36.7%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $112M
- Total debt
- $6.0B
- Net cash
- −$5.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.52×
- Interest coverage
- 5.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $810M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −16%
- Dividend yield
- 0.62%$202M paid
- Payout ratio
- 8%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $200M0.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $50M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Martin Marietta Materials’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $213.21 · MV $495.85 · FCF value $287.98
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $13.46 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026. Net debt $5.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +6.6%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$5.27
- Year-ago EPS$5.97
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MLM fires a reversal signal
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