QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Matador Resources Company MTDR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $116.52+91%
- Market Value
- $56.97price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.76
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $60.88
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$37.19−38.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 5$56.97−6.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$60.88you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$65.45+7.5%
- Fair value est.base case$116.52+91.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTDR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTDR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.76
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.24
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.9% (price / FCF 10.1×): $749M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $116.52, 91% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 10.4× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.9×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 32% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 33.2% in FY2025 from 43.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 54% to $3.4B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.2B, 55% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
ValuationTrades 6.9% above its Market Value of $56.97, the average price paid since the Oct 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Matador Resources Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 10.4 · FCF yield 9.9% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.4×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.1×
- FCF yield
- 9.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.9×
- Price / sales
- 2.07×
- Price / book
- 1.27×
- Market cap
- $7.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- −14.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $724M
- Net income growth
- −15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 32.2%
- Net margin
- 19.9%
- FCF margin
- 20.5%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $26M
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- −$4.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.71×
- Interest coverage
- 5.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $749M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.36%$178M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $24M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Matador Resources Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $116.52 · MV $56.97
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.03 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $4.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $-0.9B · Sales +27%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield−12.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin−24%
- Gross margin82%
- Operating margin49%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+27%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.64
- Year-ago EPS$1.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MTDR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.