QualityDipJC
Jim CramerOct 5 · TV
bullish“I think Ciena is very good. I happen to like optical. You know, the one that I had liked for the Club was Corning. I'm waiting for it to come down and be able to get back in.”
Stocks / Technology · Telecommunications Equipment
CIEN
Ciena CIEN
$320.72−8.22% dayFri Oct 30 close
In a deep dip: 49% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 11% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $127.27−60%
- Market Value
- $361.64price −11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −49%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.79
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $320.72
- Fair value est.base case$127.27−60.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$176.45−45.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$320.72you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 3$361.64+12.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$627.00+95.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.5%; bull = 8.5% and 11.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$127.27−60% vs price
Price $320.72
Bear$98.08
Base$127.27
Bull$169.89
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CIEN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CIEN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
High
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.79
- Volatility
- 77% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.56
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 33% to $6.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 47% to $0.85 in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 35% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 49% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
ValuationTrades 11.3% below its Market Value of $361.64, the average price paid since the Sep 3 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $127.27, 60% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 71.5× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.1% in FY2025 from 8.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 57×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.79 vs the S&P 500 and 77% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ciena in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Technology
All fundamentals
P/E 71.5 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 71.5×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 57.5×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 53.5×
- Price / sales
- 7.78×
- Price / book
- 15.32×
- Market cap
- $46.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $47.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +32.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.47
- EPS growth, last FY
- +46.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $654M
- Net income growth
- +365%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 44.1%
- Operating margin
- 12.3%
- Net margin
- 10.9%
- FCF margin
- 13.5%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.6B
- Total debt
- $3.2B
- Net cash
- −$600M
- Debt / equity
- 1.06×
- Interest coverage
- 10.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $814M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +35%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $422M0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $212M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Ciena’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $127.27 · MV $361.64 · FCF value $130.94
Market ValueAverage paid since the Sep 3 filing, 41 trading days
$361.64price −11%
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$127.2760% downside
Assumes 9.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 3, 2026. Net debt $600M, not deducted.
FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($0.8B)
$130.94price +145%
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days +0.1%
$320.72nowMV
52-wk low $176.45high $627.00
Off 52-wk high−48.8%
5 days+0.1%
vs 50-day avg−11.8%
vs 200-day avg−20.8%
RSI (14)41
Market cap$50B
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +37%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+37%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Investor buzz
1 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CIEN fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CIEN or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.