QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Durable Goods
Core & Main CNM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $56.85+28%
- Market Value
- $41.83price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.07
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$40.35−8.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 9$41.83−5.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$44.25you are here
- Fair value est.base case$56.85+28.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$59.09+33.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.8%; bull = 8.5% and 6.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CNM’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CNM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.07
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $56.85, 28% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.3% (price / FCF 13.6×): $628M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 23% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.5% in a year: $365M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 11.4×, below the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales fell 0.5% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 27%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.2×, above the 0.9× median for the 119 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 9.6%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.8% above its Market Value of $41.83, the average price paid since the Sep 9 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Core & Main in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 18.6 · FCF yield 7.3% · ROE 23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.6×
- FCF yield
- 7.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.4×
- Price / sales
- 1.11×
- Price / book
- 4.21×
- Market cap
- $8.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.43
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $459M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 27.0%
- Operating margin
- 9.6%
- Net margin
- 6.0%
- FCF margin
- 8.2%
- Return on equity
- 23%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $312M
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$2.1B
- Debt / equity
- 1.21×
- Interest coverage
- 6.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $628M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +11%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $365M4.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $14M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 2, 2026. From Core & Main’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $56.85 · MV $41.83 · FCF value $63.21
Assumes 4.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.8% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.25 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 9, 2026. Net debt $2.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +5.4%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CNM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.