QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 30% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $17.57
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$14.12−19.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$17.57you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.02+42.4%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NCLH: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NCLH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.99
- Volatility
- 56% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 10.1× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.1% in a year.
GrowthSales compounded 27% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 42.6% in FY2025 from 36.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$564M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 5% over the last 12 months, from 27% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 51% to $0.92 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 36 points in two fiscal years, to 19% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 6.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Norwegian Cruise Line in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
All fundamentals
P/E 10.1 · FCF yield -6.7% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −6.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.83×
- Price / book
- 2.67×
- Market cap
- $8.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $23.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $10.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +26.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.82
- EPS growth, last FY
- −51.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $833M
- Net income growth
- +26%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.4%
- Operating margin
- 13.8%
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- FCF margin
- −5.6%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $257M
- Total debt
- $15.1B
- Net cash
- −$14.8B
- Debt / equity
- 4.79×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$564M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $91M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Norwegian Cruise Line’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +16.4%
The business
FCF $-1.0B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield−12.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin−10%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NCLH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.