QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
American Airlines Group AAL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 31% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $7.10−44%
- Market Value
- $12.50price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.92
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.60
- Fair value est.base case$7.10−43.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.18−19.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$12.50−0.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$12.60you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.15+44.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.7%; bull = 8.5% and 5.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AAL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AAL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.92
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.44
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 12% to $61.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.9×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $7.10, 44% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 86% to $0.17 in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.6× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $481M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 8.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Airlines Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
All fundamentals
FCF yield -1.1% · Sales +12%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −1.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.14×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $8.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $61.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- −86.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$481M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 1.6%
- Net margin
- −0.8%
- FCF margin
- −0.1%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.4B
- Total debt
- $25.4B
- Net cash
- −$17.0B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 0.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$91M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From American Airlines Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $7.10 · MV $12.50 · FCF value $1.11
Assumes 3.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.43 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 23, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +4.0%
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+19%
- Net debt / EBITDA8.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AAL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.