QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Circle Internet Group CRCL
In a deep dip: 45% below its 52-week high.
A quality company, 16% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: our model doesn’t fit it reliably.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $86.29price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −45%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.97
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $72.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$50.23−30.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$72.54you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 8$86.29+19.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$132.84+83.1%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for CRCL: earnings swing too much for a book-value model (return on equity ranged from -4% to 15% across FY2023–2025 and the latest 12 months). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CRCL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 7.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.97
- Volatility
- 97% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.39
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.39
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 38% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 37% to $2.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 15.9% below its Market Value of $86.29, the average price paid since the Sep 8 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 45% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 45.0× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 15 points in two fiscal years, to -2% in FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 5.8×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.97 vs the S&P 500 and 97% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.40): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Circle Internet Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
All fundamentals
P/E 45.0 · ROE 15% · Sales +37%
Valuation
- P/E
- 45.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- 6.99×
- Price / book
- 5.79×
- Market cap
- $20.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +37.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +37.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.99
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $451M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- 7.4%
- Net margin
- 15.5%
- FCF margin
- 26.2%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $762M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +52%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $224M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Circle Internet Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $86.29
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −15.6%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.5%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.40
- Year-ago EPS$0.64
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CRCL fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CRCL or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.