QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Affirm AFRM
Not in a dip by our rules: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: our model doesn’t fit it reliably.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $73.24at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.52
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $73.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$42.53−42.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$73.24−0.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$73.47you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$85.78+16.8%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for AFRM: earnings swing too much for a book-value model (return on equity ranged from -38% to 45% across FY2022–2026 and the latest 12 months). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AFRM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.52
- Volatility
- 59% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 39% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 32% to $4.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 45% over the last 12 months, up 54 points in two years.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 45%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 4.6×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.1% over 12 months, above the −2.5% median for the 117 Finance companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.52 vs the S&P 500 and 59% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.35): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Affirm in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
All fundamentals
P/E 13.2 · ROE 45% · Sales +32%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.2×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- 5.96×
- Price / book
- 4.63×
- Market cap
- $25.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $33.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +32.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +39.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- 9.8%
- Net margin
- 45.3%
- FCF margin
- 23.3%
- Return on equity
- 45%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.6B
- Total debt
- $9.8B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $993M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +65%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $305M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Affirm’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $73.24
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +4.8%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Return on equity50%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.35
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AFRM fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on AFRM or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.