QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Darling Ingredients DAR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $67.01+20%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.21
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $55.73
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$31.92−42.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$55.73you are here
- Fair value est.base case$67.01+20.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$68.34+22.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DAR’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DAR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.21
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $67.01, 20% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 15.0× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $6.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 8.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.7×, below the 2.7× median for the 35 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 77% to $0.39 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.5% in FY2026 from 14.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 13 points in two fiscal years, to 1% in FY2026.
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.8B, 42% of the market cap (Jul 4, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Darling Ingredients in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
All fundamentals
P/E 15.0 · ROE 12% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.0×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.37×
- Price / book
- 1.71×
- Market cap
- $9.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $12.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.72
- EPS growth, last FY
- −77.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $598M
- Net income growth
- +468%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.3%
- Operating margin
- 14.5%
- Net margin
- 9.1%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $161M
- Total debt
- $3.9B
- Net cash
- −$3.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.75×
- Interest coverage
- 4.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $73M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $37M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Darling Ingredients’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $67.01
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.1% a year FY22–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.23 a share (fiscal year to Jan 3, 2026), from the 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −0.9%
The business
Sales +14%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DAR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.