QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
McCormick & Company MKC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 34% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $54.46+15%
- Market Value
- $45.95price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −34%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.35
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$44.14−6.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 1$45.95−2.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$47.29you are here
- Fair value est.base case$54.46+15.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$71.65+51.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MKC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MKC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.35
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $54.46, 15% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 8.5× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.3% (price / FCF 13.8×): $926M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.0% ($508M paid over 12 months, 34% of earnings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 41% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.7B, 37% of the market cap (Aug 31, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6.4%, below the 12% median for the 29 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 39%, below the 44% median for the 37 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.0% over 12 months, above the −0.6% median for the 27 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on McCormick & Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
All fundamentals
P/E 8.5 · FCF yield 7.3% · ROE 23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.5×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 13.8×
- FCF yield
- 7.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.4×
- Price / sales
- 1.66×
- Price / book
- 1.82×
- Market cap
- $12.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $17.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- +0.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Net income growth
- +92%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.1%
- Operating margin
- 13.4%
- Net margin
- 19.4%
- FCF margin
- 12.0%
- Return on equity
- 23%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $331M
- Total debt
- $5.0B
- Net cash
- −$4.7B
- Debt / equity
- 0.72×
- Interest coverage
- 4.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $926M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +41%
- Dividend yield
- 3.99%$508M paid
- Payout ratio
- 34%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $16M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $43M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From McCormick & Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $54.46 · MV $45.95 · FCF value $69.43
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.44 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 1, 2026. Net debt $4.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −1.7%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MKC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.