QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
The J.M. Smucker Company SJM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $235.62+81%
- Market Value
- $124.62price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.34
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $129.90
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$89.53−31.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$124.62−4.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$129.90you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$133.39+2.7%
- Fair value est.base case$235.62+81.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SJM’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SJM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.34
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $235.62, 81% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.4% (price / FCF 8.7×): $1.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 136% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.4% ($467M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 5.1% over the last 12 months, above the 3.5% median for the 39 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.0% in FY2026 from 16.0% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 60.5× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet debt of $6.7B, 48% of the market cap (Jul 31, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 12 points in two fiscal years, to -3% in FY2026.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The J.M. Smucker Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
All fundamentals
P/E 60.5 · FCF yield 11.4% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 60.5×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 8.7×
- FCF yield
- 11.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.0×
- Price / sales
- 1.52×
- Price / book
- 2.41×
- Market cap
- $13.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $20.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $230M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.7%
- Operating margin
- 9.0%
- Net margin
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $43M
- Total debt
- $6.7B
- Net cash
- −$6.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.17×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +136%
- Dividend yield
- 3.37%$467M paid
- Payout ratio
- 204%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $7M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $27M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From The J.M. Smucker Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $235.62 · MV $124.62 · FCF value $351.21
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.0% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $14.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 26, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days −0.1%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SJM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.