QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Shoe Manufacturing
Crocs CROX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $269.06+79%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.76
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $150.52
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.39−51.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$150.52you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$150.52at the price
- Fair value est.base case$269.06+78.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.4%; bull = 8.5% and 6.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CROX’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CROX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.76
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.08
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $269.06, 79% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.4% (price / FCF 9.6×): $754M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 11.2% in a year: $686M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.9× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 49% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 3.7% in FY2025 from 26.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 61 points in two fiscal years, to -6% in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 0.7% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Crocs in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 10.9 · FCF yield 10.4% · ROE 49%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 9.6×
- FCF yield
- 10.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.76×
- Price / book
- 5.37×
- Market cap
- $7.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $664M
- Net income growth
- +264%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.4%
- Operating margin
- 22.6%
- Net margin
- 16.2%
- FCF margin
- 18.4%
- Return on equity
- 49%
- Return on invested capital
- 29%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $163M
- Total debt
- $1.3B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.96×
- Interest coverage
- 11.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $754M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +5%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $686M9.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −11.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $45M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Crocs’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $269.06 · FCF value $297.90
Assumes 4.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.72 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $1.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +26.2%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin59%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital25%
- Return on equity49%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CROX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.