QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Shoe Manufacturing
Nike NKE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $22.47−42%
- Market Value
- $35.70price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.59
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $38.67
- Fair value est.base case$22.47−41.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.87−12.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 1$35.70−7.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$38.67you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$67.78+75.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NKE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NKE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.59
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.2% ($2.4B paid over 12 months, 78% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.5×, below the 0.9× median for the 119 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 18.6×, below the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $22.47, 42% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 19 points in two fiscal years, to 21% in FY2026.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 30% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 8.3% above its Market Value of $35.70, the average price paid since the Oct 1 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nike in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 18.6 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 27.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.25×
- Price / book
- 3.77×
- Market cap
- $57.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $58.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $45.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.09
- EPS growth, last FY
- −2.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Net income growth
- +7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 4.6%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.9B
- Total debt
- $7.9B
- Net cash
- −$990M
- Debt / equity
- 0.52×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −30%
- Dividend yield
- 4.23%$2.4B paid
- Payout ratio
- 78%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $20M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $688M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From Nike’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $22.47 · MV $35.70 · FCF value $35.55
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.2% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.42 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 2, 2026. Net debt $990M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +3.7%
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales −4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−4%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NKE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.