QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Retail stores
Macy's M
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 6% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $22.81price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.98
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $24.11
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.92−29.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 10$22.81−5.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$24.11you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$26.21+8.7%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for M: the model gives 242% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, M’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much M moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.98
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 21.6% (price / FCF 4.6×): $1.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 8.7× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 46% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 4.6% in FY2026 from 1.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 0.4% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 14%, below the 16% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.7% above its Market Value of $22.81, the average price paid since the Sep 10 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Macy's in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Retail stores
All fundamentals
P/E 8.7 · FCF yield 21.6% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 4.6×
- FCF yield
- 21.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.29×
- Price / book
- 1.33×
- Market cap
- $6.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $22.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- +12.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $750M
- Net income growth
- +52%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.7%
- Operating margin
- 5.0%
- Net margin
- 3.3%
- FCF margin
- 6.2%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.49×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +46%
- Dividend yield
- 3.02%$198M paid
- Payout ratio
- 26%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $205M3.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $63M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Macy's’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $22.81 · FCF value $55.64
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin40%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
M is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.