QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
Live Nation Entertainment LYV
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $172.39−3%
- Market Value
- $174.26price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.68
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $177.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$125.61−29.4%
- Fair value est.base case$172.39−3.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 16$174.26−2.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$177.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$188.46+5.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.7%; bull = 8.5% and 16.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LYV’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LYV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.68
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 11% to $26.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 23% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 15% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $258M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.3× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count up 4.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −117%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.50): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Live Nation Entertainment in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.2% · ROE -117% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 31.4×
- FCF yield
- 3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 29.2×
- Price / sales
- 1.65×
- Price / book
- 527.29×
- Market cap
- $43.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $43.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $26.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.11
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$258M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 3.0%
- Net margin
- −1.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.3%
- Return on equity
- −117%
- Return on invested capital
- n/an/m: very small invested capital
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $9.1B
- Total debt
- $9.2B
- Net cash
- −$130M
- Debt / equity
- n/an/m: equity near zero
- Interest coverage
- 2.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +23%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $164M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Live Nation Entertainment’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $172.39 · MV $174.26 · FCF value $145.41
Assumes 14.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.67 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +2.6%
The business
FCF $1.4B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity62%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.50
- Year-ago EPS$0.73
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when LYV fires a reversal signal
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