QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Oil and Gas Field Machinery
DNOW DNOW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Revenue up 70% in a year, top 5% of the 1820 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $17.19+9%
- Market Value
- $15.86at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.60
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.7%; bull = 8.5% and 11.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DNOW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DNOW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.60
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where DNOW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate9% · price below our base caseTop 39%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 43%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 48%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+70% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 4%of 1,814
- Operating margin−4.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 8%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−6.1% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 4%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $17.19 · MV $15.86
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 9.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.75 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $360M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 70% to $4.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.7% (price / FCF 21.2×): $136M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.2×, below the 0.8× median for the 250 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −3.3% in FY2025 from 6.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $188M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 27 points in two fiscal years, to -4% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −5% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 4.7% · ROE -12% · Sales +70%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 21.2×
- FCF yield
- 4.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.71×
- Price / book
- 1.38×
- Market cap
- $2.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +69.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.43
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$188M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.8%
- Operating margin
- −4.6%
- Net margin
- −4.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.3%
- Return on equity
- −12%
- Return on invested capital
- −6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $114M
- Total debt
- $474M
- Net cash
- −$360M
- Debt / equity
- 0.23×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $136M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −35%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $85M2.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From DNOW’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.5B · Sales +108%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin−13%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity−12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+108%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.80
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.12−29.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$15.80you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$15.86+0.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$16.87+6.8%
- Fair value est.base case$17.19+8.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −0.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.15
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
DNOW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on DNOW in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil and Gas Field Machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.