QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Industrial Specialties
Distribution Solutions Group DSGR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $21.37−39%
- Market Value
- $34.90at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.76
52-week range at its 52-week high
Price $35.00Fair value est. $21.37Market Value $34.90
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Oct 15), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($35.09, Oct 15) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($19.31, Mar 13) about 1%; today about 21%. The last 3 years delivered 20%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 20%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $35.09Oct 15 | $19.31Mar 13 | $35.00 |
| Implied growth | +21% | +1% | +21% |
| P/E | 181.9× | 109.1× | 181.4× |
| P/FCF | 43.7× | 14.5× | 43.6× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.8× | 1.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.3%; bull = 8.5% and 14.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DSGR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DSGR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.76
- Volatility
- 55% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where DSGR stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate39% · price above our base caseLowest 20%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield2.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 33%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 36%of 2,184
- Operating margin3.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 24%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital3.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 21%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $21.37 · MV $34.90 · FCF value $21.87
Assumes 12.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.3% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $627M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.5×, below the 3.0× median for the 413 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $21.37, 39% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 181.4× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.4× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 6% over the last 12 months, from 20% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 181.4 · FCF yield 2.3% · ROE 1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 181.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 43.6×
- FCF yield
- 2.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.79×
- Price / book
- 2.48×
- Market cap
- $1.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $9M
- Net income growth
- +110%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.7%
- Operating margin
- 3.5%
- Net margin
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- 1.8%
- Return on equity
- 1%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $67M
- Total debt
- $694M
- Net cash
- −$627M
- Debt / equity
- 1.06×
- Interest coverage
- 1.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $37M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −4%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Distribution Solutions Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $35.00
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.31−44.8%
- Fair value est.base case$21.37−38.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$34.90−0.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$35.00you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$35.09+0.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days 0.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.47
- Year-ago EPS$0.40
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
DSGR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Distribution Solutions Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial Specialties
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.