QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Industrial Specialties
Willis Lease Finance WLFC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 45% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 6% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 46% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 20%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $46.62price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −45%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.28
52-week range 16% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $43.96Market Value $46.62
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($36.96, Oct 20) about −25%; today about −25%. The last 3 years delivered 22%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 22%/yr (free cash flow)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $36.96Oct 20 | $43.96 |
| Implied growth | −25% | −25% |
| P/E | 9.5× | 13.1× |
| P/FCF | 3.2× | 3.2× |
| EV/Sales | 4.1× | 4.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for WLFC: the model gives 850% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WLFC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 25% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WLFC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.28
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
How it ranks
Where WLFC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield31% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 35%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+20% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 26%of 2,184
- Operating margin11% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 49%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 16%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $46.62 · FCF value $329.70
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 30.8% (price / FCF 3.2×): $297M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 33% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 13.1× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 20% to $828M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 5.7% below its Market Value of $46.62, the average price paid since the Aug 25 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.7× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.5B, 261% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 50% to $2.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.5× shareholders’ equity.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 5.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 13.1 · FCF yield 30.8% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 3.2×
- FCF yield
- 30.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.2×
- Price / sales
- 1.16×
- Price / book
- 1.32×
- Market cap
- $965Mprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $828M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +32.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.62
- EPS growth, last FY
- +0.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $73M
- Net income growth
- −37%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 11.3%
- Net margin
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- 35.8%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11M
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- −$2.5B
- Debt / equity
- 3.46×
- Interest coverage
- 0.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $297M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +23%
- Dividend yield
- 1.27%$12M paid
- Payout ratio
- 17%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $48M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Willis Lease Finance’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield30.8%
- Gross margin85%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $43.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$36.96−15.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$43.96you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 25$46.62+6.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$79.97+81.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +13.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.60
- Year-ago EPS$1.08
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
WLFC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Willis Lease Finance in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial Specialties
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.