QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · Other Consumer Services
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share EDU
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 24% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 16%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.15
5 bullish · 0 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 22% below its 52-week high (Feb 3), but the business held up: revenue +15.5%, earnings per share +30.7%, free cash flow +19.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +15.5%, earnings per share +30.7%, free cash flow +19.2%), others slipped. The price is 22% below its 52-week high.
The price is 22% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.9B → $5.7B (+15.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+13.6% → +15.5% a year (+1.9 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.23 → $0.30 (+30.7%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$655M → $780M (+19.2%)held up
- Operating margin8.7% → 11.4% (+2.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−2.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −22%, sector median +5% since Feb 3changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −22%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +19% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 15.8× at the high → 10.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to May 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to May 31, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($63.51, Feb 3) the price assumed about 3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($44.44, Jun 25) about −3%; today about −5%. The last 3 years delivered −2%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −2%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $63.51Feb 3 | $44.44Jun 25 | $49.38 |
| Implied growth | +3% | −3% | −5% |
| P/E | 27.9× | 19.5× | 16.6× |
| P/FCF | 15.8× | 11.1× | 10.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for EDU: the model gives 206% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EDU’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EDU moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.15
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
Valuation details
FCF value $113.83
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.9% (price / FCF 10.1×): $780M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 24% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 16.6× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 16% to $5.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 11.4% in FY2026 from 8.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 0 of 5
Nothing in our data makes a clear bear case right now.
All fundamentals
P/E 16.6 · FCF yield 9.9% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.6×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.1×
- FCF yield
- 9.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.39×
- Price / book
- 1.98×
- Market cap
- $7.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +23.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +30.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $475M
- Net income growth
- +28%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 54.6%
- Operating margin
- 11.4%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 13.8%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.8B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 22973.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $780M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +19%
- Dividend yield
- 1.22%$96M paid
- Payout ratio
- 20%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $231M2.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $88M
Trailing 12 months to May 31, 2026; balance sheet at May 31, 2026. From New Oriental Education & Technology Group Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin54%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA−4.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $49.38
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$44.44−10.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$49.38you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$63.51+28.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 28 · 5 days −15.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
EDU is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on New Oriental Education & Technology Group Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Consumer Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.