QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Household & personal products
e.l.f. Beauty ELF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $144.71+30%
- Market Value
- $102.41price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.61
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $111.69
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$49.57−55.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$102.41−8.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$111.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$123.11+10.2%
- Fair value est.base case$144.71+29.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ELF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ELF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.61
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.27
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $144.71, 30% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 41% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 108% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 31% to $1.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 74%, above the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 77% to $0.44 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 4.5% in FY2026 from 14.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 111.9× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 18 points in two fiscal years, to 2% in FY2026.
ValuationTrades 9.1% above its Market Value of $102.41, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on e.l.f. Beauty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Household & personal products
All fundamentals
P/E 111.9 · FCF yield 4.2% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 111.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 23.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 32.6×
- Price / sales
- 3.79×
- Price / book
- 5.71×
- Market cap
- $6.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +31.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +41.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- −77.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $60M
- Net income growth
- −39%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 74.4%
- Operating margin
- 7.2%
- Net margin
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 15.9%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $344M
- Total debt
- $834M
- Net cash
- −$490M
- Debt / equity
- 0.71×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $280M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +108%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $100M1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $97M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From e.l.f. Beauty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $144.71 · MV $102.41 · FCF value $116.69
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 41.4% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.69 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $490M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −2.2%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.8×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.36
- Year-ago EPS$0.30
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ELF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.