QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Household & personal products
Haleon HLN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $10.91+26%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.09
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.66
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$8.57−1.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$8.66you are here
- Fair value est.base case$10.91+26.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.27+30.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HLN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HLN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.09
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.18
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $10.91, 26% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.0% (price / FCF 12.6×): $3.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 21.9% in FY2025 from 17.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 64.2% in FY2025 from 59.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $656M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 27% to $1.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew only 0.5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 1.8% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Haleon in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Household & personal products
All fundamentals
P/E 17.4 · FCF yield 8.0% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.6×
- FCF yield
- 8.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.3×
- Price / sales
- 2.64×
- Price / book
- 1.77×
- Market cap
- $39.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $38.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $14.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- +17.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Net income growth
- +16%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 64.2%
- Operating margin
- 21.9%
- Net margin
- 15.1%
- FCF margin
- 21.0%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.8B
- Total debt
- $1.1B
- Net cash
- $656M
- Debt / equity
- 0.05×
- Interest coverage
- 7.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Haleon’s SEC filings, reported in GBP and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $10.91 · FCF value $12.81
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.69 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from GBP at 1.344, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Mar 13, 2026. Net debt $10.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 33 · 5 days −15.7%
The business
FCF $2.2B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin65%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (last fiscal year vs prior)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HLN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.