QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Household & personal products
Estee Lauder Companies EL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $57.16−48%
- Market Value
- $100.59price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.25
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $109.23
- Fair value est.base case$57.16−47.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.23−38.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 19$100.59−7.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$109.23you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$119.61+9.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.25
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.24
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 96% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 75.5% in FY2026 from 71.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $57.16, 48% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 218.9× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 47 points in two fiscal years, to -29% in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.3× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Estee Lauder Companies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Household & personal products
All fundamentals
P/E 218.9 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 218.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.6×
- Price / sales
- 2.65×
- Price / book
- 9.98×
- Market cap
- $39.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $43.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $182M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.5%
- Operating margin
- 5.2%
- Net margin
- 1.2%
- FCF margin
- 8.7%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.1B
- Total debt
- $6.8B
- Net cash
- −$3.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.71×
- Interest coverage
- 2.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +96%
- Dividend yield
- 1.27%$508M paid
- Payout ratio
- 279%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $70M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $310M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Mar 31, 2026. From Estee Lauder Companies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $57.16 · MV $100.59 · FCF value $91.49
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.8% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.61 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 19, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +0.5%
The business
FCF $1.3B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.52
- Year-ago EPS$0.32
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
EL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.