QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
MP Materials MP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 46% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 20% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $49.61price −20%
- Off 52-wk high
- −46%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.56
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $39.57
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$37.47−5.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$39.57you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$49.61+25.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$72.65+83.6%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for MP: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.56
- Volatility
- 70% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 26% to $305M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $518M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ValuationTrades 20.2% below its Market Value of $49.61, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$505M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −66.6% in FY2025 from −7.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -3.3× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $61M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MP Materials in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
All fundamentals
FCF yield -6.8% · ROE -4% · Sales +26%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −6.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 24.23×
- Price / book
- 3.78×
- Market cap
- $7.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $6.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $305M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −24.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$61M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −41.5%
- Net margin
- −19.9%
- FCF margin
- −165.2%
- Return on equity
- −4%
- Return on invested capital
- −7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $935M
- Net cash
- $518M
- Debt / equity
- 0.48×
- Interest coverage
- -3.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$505M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From MP Materials’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $49.61
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days +3.3%
The business
FCF $-0.4B · Sales +120%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield−5.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin−104%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin−15%
- Return on invested capital−3%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+120%
- Net debt / EBITDA−11.6×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.04)
- Year-ago EPS($0.13)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.