QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Permian Resources PR
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 13% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $73.72+183%
- Market Value
- $23.07price +13%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.52
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $26.02
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.13−53.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$23.07−11.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$26.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$26.02at the price
- Fair value est.base case$73.72+183.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.52
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.21
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.2% (price / FCF 10.9×): $2.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 33% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $73.72, 183% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 36% over the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 18.0× is 70% above its own average of 10.6× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsShare count up 14.6% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 13% over the last 12 months, from 33% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 28.9% in FY2025 from 35.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 12.8% above its Market Value of $23.07, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Permian Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 18.0 · FCF yield 9.2% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.0×3-yr-end avg 10.6× · Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.9×
- FCF yield
- 9.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.88×
- Price / book
- 1.85×
- Market cap
- $22.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +33.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.55
- EPS growth, last FY
- −11.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 35.8%
- Net margin
- 21.5%
- FCF margin
- 35.6%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $132M
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- −$2.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.25×
- Interest coverage
- 7.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 2.27%$505M paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +14.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $69M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Permian Resources’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $73.72 · MV $23.07 · FCF value $32.83
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 33.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.39 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $2.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +2.1%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +55%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin47%
- Operating margin44%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+55%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.60
- Year-ago EPS$0.37
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PR fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on PR or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.