QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Expeditors International of Washington EXPD
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $111.44−44%
- Market Value
- $190.59price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.48
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $198.85
- Fair value est.base case$111.44−44.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$120.19−39.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$190.59−4.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$198.85you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$199.64+0.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EXPD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EXPD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.48
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 43% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.8% in a year: $901M of buybacks over 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $111.44, 44% below the price.
GrowthSales shrank 13% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 28.4× is 22% above its own average of 23.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationPrice / book of 12.3×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $2.24): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Expeditors International of Washington in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 28.4 · FCF yield 3.5% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.4×3-yr-end avg 23.3× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 28.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.17×
- Price / book
- 12.33×
- Market cap
- $26.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −13.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $919M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 9.8%
- Net margin
- 7.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.7%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $924M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +14%
- Dividend yield
- 0.80%$209M paid
- Payout ratio
- 23%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $901M3.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $75M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Expeditors International of Washington’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $111.44 · MV $190.59 · FCF value $177.27
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -13.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.03 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +1.3%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +32%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital44%
- Return on equity41%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+32%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.24
- Year-ago EPS$1.64
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EXPD fires a reversal signal
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