QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Steel
ATI ATI
In a deep dip: 29% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $57.56−65%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.62
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $165.59
- Fair value est.base case$57.56−65.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$94.80−42.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$165.59you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$231.78+40.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.1%; bull = 8.5% and 8.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ATI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 26% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ATI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.62
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.50
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.48
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 30% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 20%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 14.0% in FY2025 from 11.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 29% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $57.56, 65% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 41.2× is 57% above its own average of 26.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 22% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 41.2× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ATI in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Steel
All fundamentals
P/E 41.2 · FCF yield 1.8% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 41.2×3-yr-end avg 26.3× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 54.4×
- FCF yield
- 1.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.2×
- Price / sales
- 4.57×
- Price / book
- 11.43×
- Market cap
- $22.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $24.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.00
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $556M
- Net income growth
- +25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.5%
- Operating margin
- 16.5%
- Net margin
- 11.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $442M
- Total debt
- $1.8B
- Net cash
- −$1.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.90×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $421M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $195M0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From ATI’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $57.56 · FCF value $73.05
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.1% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.04 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days +5.6%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ATI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ATI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.