QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Garments and Clothing
Ralph Lauren RL
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $237.61−40%
- Market Value
- $364.39price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.21
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $392.87
- Fair value est.base case$237.61−39.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$309.29−21.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$364.39−7.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$392.87you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$414.25+5.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.0%; bull = 8.5% and 10.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.21
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.44
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 49%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 38% over the last 12 months, up 7 points in two years.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 30% to $15.11 in FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $8.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $237.61, 40% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 24.5× is 23% above its own average of 19.9× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.8×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.9%, below the 1.1% median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.8% above its Market Value of $364.39, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ralph Lauren in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 24.5 · ROE 38% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.5×3-yr-end avg 19.9× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.88×
- Price / book
- 8.85×
- Market cap
- $24.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $23.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- +30.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $983M
- Net income growth
- +24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 70.3%
- Operating margin
- 14.9%
- Net margin
- 11.8%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 38%
- Return on invested capital
- 49%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.9B
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- $702M
- Debt / equity
- 0.46×
- Interest coverage
- 22.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.92%$221M paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $626M2.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $115M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Ralph Lauren’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $237.61 · MV $364.39 · FCF value $410.95
Assumes 8.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.0% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.33 a share (trailing 12 months to Dec 27, 2025), from the 10-Q filed Feb 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +4.1%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin70%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital27%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$4.27
- Year-ago EPS$3.79
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when RL fires a reversal signal
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