QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Auto Manufacturing
Ford Motor Company F
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 30% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $23.44+91%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.14
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.21−8.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$12.25you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.44+42.4%
- Fair value est.base case$23.44+91.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.8%; bull = 8.5% and 7.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, F’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much F moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.14
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $23.44, 91% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.3% (price / FCF 9.7×): $5.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.8% ($2.4B paid over 12 months).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -5.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $7.8B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 33 points in two fiscal years, to -23% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −4.9% in FY2025 from 3.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 36.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ford Motor Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto Manufacturing
All fundamentals
FCF yield 10.3% · ROE -18% · Sales −1%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 9.7×
- FCF yield
- 10.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.27×
- Price / book
- 1.35×
- Market cap
- $49.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $187B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$7.8B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 8.4%
- Operating margin
- −3.8%
- Net margin
- −4.2%
- FCF margin
- 2.8%
- Return on equity
- −18%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $34.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -5.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −57%
- Dividend yield
- 4.81%$2.4B paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $311M0.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $425M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Ford Motor Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $23.44 · FCF value $32.52
Assumes 5.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.26 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +5.6%
The business
FCF $5.1B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin2%
- Operating margin−4%
- Return on invested capital−3%
- Return on equity−20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA36.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
F is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.