QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Auto Manufacturing
Paccar PCAR
In a deep dip: 26% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $91.45−10%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.88
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $101.91
- Fair value est.base case$91.45−10.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$94.15−7.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$101.91you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$138.21+35.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PCAR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PCAR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.88
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 19.5× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.7×): $3.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.7% ($1.5B paid over 12 months, 53% of earnings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 26% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $91.45, 10% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 43% to $4.51 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 17 points in two fiscal years, to 12% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 19.5× is 20% above its own average of 16.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 20.1% in FY2025 from 23.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Paccar in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 19.5 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.5×3-yr-end avg 16.2× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.85×
- Price / book
- 2.57×
- Market cap
- $53.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $29.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- −42.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 9.5%
- FCF margin
- 10.5%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −23%
- Dividend yield
- 2.70%$1.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 53%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Paccar’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $91.45 · FCF value $102.57
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.77 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 25 · 5 days −4.7%
The business
FCF $2.2B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PCAR fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on PCAR or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.