QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Railroads
Greenbrier Companies GBX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 8% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $39.04price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.34
52-week range 22% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $42.22Market Value $39.04
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 28% below its 52-week high (Feb 24), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue −19.8%, revenue growth rate −9.1 pts, earnings per share −55.9%). The price is 28% below its 52-week high.
The price is 28% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −19.8%, revenue growth rate −9.1 pts, earnings per share −55.9%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.1B → $2.5B (−19.8%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−15.0% → −24.0% a year (−9.1 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$5.81 → $2.57 (−55.9%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$128M → −$240M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin10.1% → 5.8% (−4.2 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−3.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−15.2% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −28%, sector median −7% since Feb 24changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −28%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −38% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 10.1× at the high → 16.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Nov 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Aug 31, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($58.87, Feb 24) the price assumed about 2%/yr free-cash-flow growth. The last 3 years delivered −15%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −15%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $58.87Feb 24 | $37.48Oct 27 | $42.22 |
| Implied growth | +2% | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 10.1× | 15.1× | 16.5× |
| P/FCF | 14.6× | — | — |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for GBX: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GBX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.34
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
How it ranks
Where GBX stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−18% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 32%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−24% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 2%of 2,184
- Operating margin5.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 33%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital3.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 20%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $39.04
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 16.5× vs a 26.3× median for the 245 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.3% ($43M paid over 12 months, 54% of earnings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 10.6×, below the 14.8× median for the 180 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.8×, below the 3.3× median for the 274 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$240M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 61% to $2.49 in FY2026.
GrowthSales fell 24% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 123% of the market cap (Aug 31, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 7.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 16.5 · FCF yield -18.4% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.5×Industrials median 26.3×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −18.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.53×
- Price / book
- 0.83×
- Market cap
- $1.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −24.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −14.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.49
- EPS growth, last FY
- −60.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $79M
- Net income growth
- −61%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 13.6%
- Operating margin
- 5.8%
- Net margin
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- −9.7%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $235M
- Total debt
- $1.8B
- Net cash
- −$1.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.17×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$240M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.28%$43M paid
- Payout ratio
- 54%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $13M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $16M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From Greenbrier Companies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales −22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-18.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin−10%
- Gross margin14%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−22%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $42.22
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$37.48−11.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$39.04−7.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$42.22you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$58.87+39.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +10.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
GBX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Greenbrier Companies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Railroads
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.