QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Greenfire Resources GFR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.33
52-week range 66% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.15
1 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GFR: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 82% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 24% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GFR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.33
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.06
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 1 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 107.3% in FY2025 from 102.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales fell 26% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 44.2× vs a 15.9× median for the 79 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales shrank 15% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 57% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 44.2 · FCF yield 1.2% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.2×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 85.1×
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.60×
- Price / book
- 1.80×
- Market cap
- $1.5Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $417M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −26.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −14.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- −61.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $34M
- Net income growth
- −61%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 107.3%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 8.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.2%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $30M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $18M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −57%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Greenfire Resources’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−10%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.33−29.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.15you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$7.10+15.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −12.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Year-ago EPS($0.09)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GFR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Greenfire Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.