QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Nabors Industries NBR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $52.92−38%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.42
52-week range 60% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $84.68Fair value est. $52.92
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 23% below its 52-week high (May 18), but the business held up: free cash flow +1258.0%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.6% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +1258.0%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.6% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (revenue growth rate −4.2 pts). The price is 23% below its 52-week high.
The price is 23% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −4.2 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.2B → $3.2B (−0.6%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+10.2% → +6.1% a year (−4.2 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$14.13 → $14.63 (+3.5%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3M → $40M (+1258.0%)held up
- Operating margin14.4% → 13.9% (−0.5 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+0.4% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −23%, sector median −1% since May 18changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −23%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +4% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 538.5× at the high → 30.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($110.63, May 18) the price assumed about 75%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 15%. The last 3 years delivered 6%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 6%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $110.63May 18 | $46.19Nov 21 | $84.68 |
| Implied growth | +75% | n/a | +15% |
| P/E | 7.8× | 3.9× | 5.8× |
| P/FCF | 538.5× | — | 30.5× |
| EV/Sales | 1.0× | 0.8× | 0.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.3%; bull = 8.5% and 8.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NBR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NBR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.42
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where NBR stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate38% · price above our base caseLowest 20%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield3.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 43%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 35%of 2,184
- Operating margin14% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 39%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital14% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 33%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $52.92 · FCF value $60.49
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.78 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $1.6B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 5.8× vs a 15.9× median for the 79 Energy companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 49% over the last 12 months, up 57 points in two years.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 40.4% in FY2023 from 36.2% in FY2021 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $2.5B at FY2025, 21% less than at FY2023.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $52.92, 38% below the price.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 133% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.3× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.9× shareholders’ equity.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 5.8 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 49%
Valuation
- P/E
- 5.8×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.38×
- Price / book
- 2.22×
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.82
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $209M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 13.9%
- Net margin
- 6.5%
- FCF margin
- 1.2%
- Return on equity
- 49%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $510M
- Total debt
- $2.1B
- Net cash
- −$1.6B
- Debt / equity
- 3.90×
- Interest coverage
- 2.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $40M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Nabors Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $84.68
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$46.19−45.5%
- Fair value est.base case$52.92−37.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$84.68you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$110.63+30.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days +2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
NBR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nabors Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.